AUTHOR: Peter Anthony TITLE: The Hinge Factor by Erik Dureschmied DATE: 12/06/2006 ----- BODY:

The role of chance is well known in war. In 1832 Carl von Clausewitz wrote On War where he said “Chance and uncertainty are two of the most common and most important elements in warfare”. One hundred and thirty years later the Enola Gay carried an atomic weapon on its way to bomb one of four cities in Japan – Kokura, Niigata, Hiroshima or Nagasaki. The pilot waited for a report on weather conditions over the four cities before he selected a target. Clear weather would doom one of these cities. Erik Dureschmied reports in his book The Hinge Factor that the weather was fine over Hiroshima so the city was bombed with a nuclear weapon. If it was cloudy over that city it would not have been doomed as it was. War often has great strategy, planning and thought in its persecution. However as Dureschmied explains so well, from Troy to Agincourt to the Gulf War chance often plays a bigger role that strategy.

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